{ "version": 1, "title": "全球AI科技与资本观点雷达", "start": "2025-10-01", "planned_end": "2026-10-31", "cutoff": "2026-10-10", "published": "2026-10-10", "method": "目的抽样 + X官方嵌入核验 + 独立作者材料补充", "limitations": [ "不是全量抓取，不报告年度发帖量、粉丝排名、互动占比、趋势统计或预测准确率。", "只检索选定主题；可见性、英文来源、作者与时间分布偏差显著。", "未覆盖的月不能说没有观点；2026-10-11 至 10-31 尚未发生。", "官方嵌入可能截断，图片与回复上下文未完整取得。", "博客与机构材料不得计入原帖数；商业利益不是否定观点的理由，但必须呈现。" ], "coverage": [ { "author": "Elon Musk", "group": "科技", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Sam Altman", "group": "科技", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 1, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Andrej Karpathy", "group": "科技", "x_records": 2, "primary_records": 2, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Andrew Ng", "group": "科技", "x_records": 2, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Yann LeCun", "group": "科技", "x_records": 4, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Demis Hassabis", "group": "科技", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Jensen Huang", "group": "科技", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Dario Amodei", "group": "科技", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 1, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Aaron Levie", "group": "科技", "x_records": 2, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Ethan Mollick", "group": "科技", "x_records": 2, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "group": "财经", "x_records": 2, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Bill Ackman", "group": "财经", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Cathie Wood", "group": "财经", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Aswath Damodaran", "group": "财经", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 3, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Ray Dalio", "group": "财经", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Mohamed El-Erian", "group": "财经", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Howard Marks", "group": "财经", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Michael Burry", "group": "财经", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Liz Ann Sonders", "group": "财经", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" }, { "author": "Lyn Alden", "group": "财经", "x_records": 0, "primary_records": 0, "note": "未取得本期可纳入原帖不表示未发帖；Jensen 的个人样本不以 @nvidia 公司账号替代。" } ], "records": [ { "id": "X01", "author": "Andrej Karpathy", "url": "https://x.com/karpathy/status/1979644538185752935", "date": "2025-10-18", "date_precision": "UTC day from X Snowflake; 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web direct X returned 403", "interest": "所属企业/投资组合可能影响立场；本记录不验证其持仓", "prediction_ids": [], "evidence_sha256": "edde046670b5362e64addede0f33489cf70d8445160ea1d19d62f069815e3071", "evidence_endpoint": "https://publish.twitter.com/oembed?url=https://x.com/ylecun/status/2057352321688842577&omit_script=true" }, { "id": "X15", "author": "Jeff Dean", "url": "https://x.com/JeffDean/status/2024525132266688757", "date": "2026-02-19", "date_precision": "UTC day from X Snowflake; official embed display retained", "posted_at_utc": "2026-02-19T16:43:00.047000+00:00", "official_display_date": "February 19, 2026", "source_type": "X原帖", "verification": "official_embed_excerpt", "evidence_scope": "excerpt", "truncated": true, "topic": "AGI与路线", "claim": "发布 Gemini 3.1 Pro，并报告 ARC-AGI-2 分数及相对提升。", "evidence_limit": "77.1% 是厂商自报特定基准结果；本次未重跑实验，不能替代真实业务评测。", "checked_on": "2026-10-10", "verification_method": "X official publish.twitter.com/oembed; web direct X returned 403", "interest": "所属企业/投资组合可能影响立场；本记录不验证其持仓", "prediction_ids": [], "evidence_sha256": "3918a54c458bf7255da8c4d8ce378ca56c664f0895f15e6edfe53f7d3a19bf5b", "evidence_endpoint": "https://publish.twitter.com/oembed?url=https://x.com/JeffDean/status/2024525132266688757&omit_script=true" }, { "id": "P01", "author": "Andrej Karpathy", "date": "2025-10-17", "date_precision": "author publication day", "url": "https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/andrej-karpathy", "source_type": "访谈原始记录", "verification": "primary_text", "evidence_scope": "primary_article", "truncated": false, "topic": "AGI与路线", "claim": "将 Agent 工程成熟描述为十年尺度，强调持续学习等能力缺口。", "evidence_limit": "对谈中的个人时间估计；不是对 2035 年完成 AGI 的可执行合约。", "checked_on": "2026-10-10", "verification_method": "author/issuer page or author archive; date from page/Atom", "interest": "作者商业、研究或投资立场可能影响选题；未核验个人持仓", "prediction_ids": [ "F01" ] }, { "id": "P02", "author": "Andrej Karpathy", "date": "2025-12-19", "date_precision": "author publication day", "url": "https://karpathy.bearblog.dev/year-in-review-2025/", "source_type": "作者博客", "verification": "primary_text", "evidence_scope": "primary_article", "truncated": false, "topic": "AI编程", "claim": "年度回顾讨论可验证奖励、锯齿状能力、上下文工程和本地编码智能体。", "evidence_limit": "作者回顾，非任务级因果实验；只用来说明其观点结构。", "checked_on": "2026-10-10", "verification_method": "author/issuer page or author archive; date from page/Atom", "interest": "作者商业、研究或投资立场可能影响选题；未核验个人持仓", "prediction_ids": [ "F02" ] }, { "id": "P03", "author": "Sam Altman", "date": "2025-10-04", "date_precision": "author publication day", "url": "https://blog.samaltman.com/sora-update-number-1", "source_type": "作者博客", "verification": "primary_text", "evidence_scope": "primary_article", "truncated": false, "topic": "成本与资本", "claim": "Sora 推出后需改进权利人控制，并探索视频生成收入与分成。", "evidence_limit": "日期来自作者 Atom published；属于产品意向，不代表盈利或分成已经实现。", "checked_on": "2026-10-10", "verification_method": "author/issuer page or author archive; date from page/Atom", "interest": "作者商业、研究或投资立场可能影响选题；未核验个人持仓", "prediction_ids": [] }, { "id": "P04", "author": "Dario Amodei", "date": "2026-01", "date_precision": "month", "url": "https://darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology", "source_type": "作者文章", "verification": "primary_text", "evidence_scope": "primary_article", "truncated": false, "topic": "学习与工作", "claim": "以强大 AI 的情景讨论自治、滥用、权力集中与经济扰动，承认不确定性。", "evidence_limit": "作者页仅标月份；是风险情景，不能认定大规模失业已经发生。", "checked_on": "2026-10-10", "verification_method": "author/issuer page or author archive; date from page/Atom", "interest": "作者商业、研究或投资立场可能影响选题；未核验个人持仓", "prediction_ids": [] }, { "id": "P05", "author": "Frank Downing / ARK", "date": "2026-02-09", "date_precision": "author publication day", "url": "https://www.ark-invest.com/newsletters/issue-497", "source_type": "机构研究", "verification": "primary_text", "evidence_scope": "primary_article", "truncated": false, "topic": "成本与资本", "claim": "认为巨额基础设施投资虽压短期盈利，长期可由广泛生产率提升创造回报。", "evidence_limit": "机构投资判断，不能归为 Cathie Wood 的个人 X 原帖；长期收益尚待验证。", "checked_on": "2026-10-10", "verification_method": "author/issuer page or author archive; date from page/Atom", "interest": "作者商业、研究或投资立场可能影响选题；未核验个人持仓", "prediction_ids": [ "F05" ] }, { "id": "P06", "author": "Aswath Damodaran", "date": "2025-12-03", "date_precision": "author publication day", "url": "https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2025/12/trillion-dollar-market-caps-fairy-tale.html", "source_type": "作者博客", "verification": "primary_text", "evidence_scope": "primary_article", "truncated": false, "topic": "成本与资本", "claim": "用市值隐含收入、利润和再投资需求审查高估值，并提醒多家公司不能同时获得同一个巨大市场。", "evidence_limit": "估值框架与当时参数，不是对当前价格的建议；未复制其计算表。", "checked_on": "2026-10-10", "verification_method": "author/issuer page or author archive; date from page/Atom", "interest": "作者商业、研究或投资立场可能影响选题；未核验个人持仓", "prediction_ids": [ "F05" ] }, { "id": "P07", "author": "Aswath Damodaran", "date": "2026-08-20", "date_precision": "author publication day", "url": "https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2026/08/ais-bar-mitzvah-moment-from-hype-hope.html", "source_type": "作者博客", "verification": "primary_text", "evidence_scope": "primary_article", "truncated": false, "topic": "成本与资本", "claim": "将 AI 讨论转向实际产品、收入、成本、利润和竞争壁垒。", "evidence_limit": "博客正文和 datePublished 已读取；其市场边界假设需另做敏感性分析。", "checked_on": "2026-10-10", "verification_method": "author/issuer page or author archive; date from page/Atom", "interest": "作者商业、研究或投资立场可能影响选题；未核验个人持仓", "prediction_ids": [ "F05" ] }, { "id": "P08", "author": "Simon Willison", "date": "2026-09-27", "date_precision": "author publication day", "url": "https://simonwillison.net/2026/Sep/27/2026-in-llms-so-far/", "source_type": "作者博客", "verification": "primary_text", "evidence_scope": "primary_article", "truncated": false, "topic": "AI编程", "claim": "结合个人实践描述编码智能体演进；生成像游戏的作品与做出可持续吸引用户的产品有差距。", "evidence_limit": "个人实践不能代表普遍采用率；本文不采纳或复述其中未独立核实的其他事件指控。", "checked_on": "2026-10-10", "verification_method": "author/issuer page or author archive; date from page/Atom", "interest": "作者商业、研究或投资立场可能影响选题；未核验个人持仓", "prediction_ids": [] }, { "id": "P09", "author": "Simon Willison", "date": "2026-10-03", "date_precision": "author publication day", "url": "https://simonwillison.net/2026/Oct/3/default-hard-budget-caps/", "source_type": "作者博客", "verification": "primary_text", "evidence_scope": "primary_article", "truncated": false, "topic": "成本与资本", "claim": "呼吁用量计费服务默认采用硬预算上限，避免智能体降低创建门槛后费用失控。", "evidence_limit": "设计建议；不推导所有云厂商都已普遍提供此功能。", "checked_on": "2026-10-10", "verification_method": "author/issuer page or author archive; date from page/Atom", "interest": "作者商业、研究或投资立场可能影响选题；未核验个人持仓", "prediction_ids": [] }, { "id": "P10", "author": "Aswath Damodaran", "date": "2026-10-08", "date_precision": "author publication day", "url": "https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2026/10/stock-prices-earnings-and-cashflows-ai.html", "source_type": "作者博客", "verification": "primary_text", "evidence_scope": "primary_article", "truncated": false, "topic": "成本与资本", "claim": "分析 AI 资本开支对投入者与供应者的不同作用，强调盈利与现金流需区分。", "evidence_limit": "读取作者 2026-10 归档正文及日期；未对公司财报进行重新建模。", "checked_on": "2026-10-10", "verification_method": "author/issuer page or author archive; date from page/Atom", "interest": "作者商业、研究或投资立场可能影响选题；未核验个人持仓", "prediction_ids": [ "F05" ] } ], "predictions": [ { "id": "F01", "source_ids": [ "P01" ], "owner": "Andrej Karpathy", "original": "Agent 的能力缺口需要十年尺度解决。", "original_deadline": null, "review_on": "2027-10-10", "status": "不可判定", "reason": "定义、基线和期限不精确；不得计算命中率。", "editorial_test": "分别考察跨任务持续学习、长程任务成功率、人工接管率。review_on 是编辑复核日期，不是作者承诺。" }, { "id": "F02", "source_ids": [ "X03", "P02" ], "owner": "Aaron Levie / Andrej Karpathy", "original": "垂直专业化与上下文整合能够形成应用层价值。", "original_deadline": null, "review_on": "2027-04-10", "status": "观察中", "reason": "本次未核验独立商业指标。", "editorial_test": "跟踪具体产品净留存、任务成功率、毛利和被基础模型替代情况；不把个别成功外推全行业。" }, { "id": "F03", "source_ids": [ "X08" ], "owner": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "original": "企业本地部署可能成为新的云路线。", "original_deadline": null, "review_on": "2027-04-10", "status": "观察中", "reason": "缺少市场占比、部署率与全成本数据。", "editorial_test": "同一任务对比硬件折旧、运维、能源、推理费、质量和利用率；价格差距本身不足以证实。" }, { "id": "F04", "source_ids": [ "X13" ], "owner": "Yann LeCun", "original": "JEPA、世界模型和规划是其押注路线。", "original_deadline": null, "review_on": "2027-10-10", "status": "不可判定", "reason": "缺少作者给定的胜出定义与截止日。", "editorial_test": "同预算独立测规划、迁移和物理任务；融资或演示不能判胜。" }, { "id": "F05", "source_ids": [ "P05", "P06", "P07", "P10" ], "owner": "ARK 长期回报判断 / Damodaran 估值约束", "original": "基础设施投入能否转化为足够的长期回报。", "original_deadline": null, "review_on": "2027-04-10", "status": "观察中", "reason": "暂无本次独立财报复核，不能判任何一方获胜。", "editorial_test": "按投入者/供应者分组跟踪资本开支、折旧、现金流、ROIC 和业务收入；这是编辑验证计划。" } ] }